Pre-Money: Apr 22nd, 2024

Ibotta and Rubrik IPOs, Winner take all, SPV battles, fintech & more

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The Vibe

The week’s most important happenings

Happy Earth Day and Happy Passover. Anxiety over inflation and geopolitics continued, but didn’t stop an IPO from going out, or another one from getting teed up. Here’s what’s new:

  • Ibotta share, you botta Rubrik

  • Winner Take All

  • Battle of the SPVs

  • Tech’s new power markets

  • Fintech’s rebound

  • and more…

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The week’s top performance indicators

Based on publicly available data from Thompson Reuters, NASDAQ, CNN Business & other third-party sources.


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Dots & Lines

The week’s top takeaways

  • Ibotta some stock: Cash-back shopping app Ibotta went public on Thursday, selling $577M in stock at a $3.2B valuation and climbing 30% - before closing the week worth $2.7B. The company, whose app lets users get cash back from their shopping - as in “I bought a…,” did more than $320M of revenue last year and generated $276M of profits. The new issue - $IBTA - reportedly minted more than 150 millionaires in Denver, which should help their ecosystem if the stock holds up. Though the IPO was a bullish signal, market headwinds continue to make it challenging for private companies to go public. Last’s month’s new entrant Reddit ($RDDT) is down 10% since the IPO, though Astera Labs has managed a small gain.

  • Rubrik is up next: Cybersecurity provider Rubrik expects to go public Thursday as $RBRK, raising an expected $713M with a market cap of $5.4B. It’s more of a classic venture-backed company than the last three to IPO, making it likely to provide a more accurate bellwether of Wall Street’s attitude toward such entrants. It’s a high-growth company, with annual recurring revenue (ARR) increasing a reported 50% to $784M from 2022 to 2023, and one that loses money, with $355M in losses last year. The 10-year old business is based in Palo Alto, in the heart of Silicon Valley. Rubrik has raised $554B to date - including its 2021 Series E where Microsoft and top VCs invested at a price of $4B. A strong IPO from Rubrik could signal brighter times ahead for the considerable backlog of unicorns awaiting the right moment to go public. And it is likely to further the momentum of the cybersecurity space, which has been buoyed by AI sentiment and heated up in recent quarters.

  • Winner take all: Raising a venture fund continues to be challenging in an era of high rates, uncertainty, and in the midst of a waiting game for exits, sales and distributions from the last few vintages. As a result, funds are getting smaller, with Q1’s average at $115M, the smallest in five years. At the same time, round sizes are actually getting bigger, with upticks at all venture stages during the quarter. These trends together point to capital concentration in few winners, and suggest that for this year, at least, the need for capital drastically outstrips its supply. Look for more bootstrapping, more shutdowns and earlier opting for acquisitions across the ecosystem. And for a few perceived top performers to get the bulk of the investor interest and funding.

    Round sizes increased even in the face of limited funding

  • SPV Maze: The insatiable demand to invest into top AI companies, any or all of which may prove to be the next Google, is creating an SPV frenzy. SPVs allow many investors to invest under one entity, allowing funds to cram their LPs, friends, and anyone, basically, into a hot company. Often, this happens without the company even having full visibility into who they are letting own their stock. In many cases, investors are forced to pay multiple layers of fees to the multiple managers aggregating their investors in these structures. Reportedly, fund management platform AngelList recently banned multi-layer SPVs in order to protect their investors. When you get access to a seemingly hot deal, or any deal, be sure to have your eyes open to the structure you’re joining and what is under the hood.


Smart Humans explores venture capital

Slava Rubin talks with Republic’s Kendrick Nguyen about the last few years in venture, revisiting his predictions and the massive opportunities that lie ahead.

Deal Points

A few items of interest

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The Forecast

Looking ahead to this week

During the week of April 22nd, don’t miss:

  • Earnings from Alphabet ($GOOG), Microsoft ($MSFT), Mobileye ($MBLY) and Spotify ($SPOT) and Tesla ($TSLA)

  • First Quarter GDP Report on Thursday

  • March personal income and spending data on Friday

  • Rubrik’s IPO on Thursday

  • The NFL Draft beginning Thursday

The Robot mobility arms race advances